Enlightenment from the end of irrational prosperity of Hongkong property market-zhuxianduowan

Hongkong property market irrational prosperity end inspiration of sina finance client: the most profitable investors in Hong Kong stocks at the beginning of the new year with level2 through market mechanism cards, a Hongkong land auction prices fell 70% of the news caused great concern in mainland media. This in Tai Po area of residential land auction price of RMB yuan less than 17 thousand square meters, far less than Beijing, Shanghai like lots of land, even more than Nanjing recent land transactions more than half price. People familiar with the geography of Hongkong know that Tai Po is not an outer suburb in Hongkong, and the surrounding facilities are quite mature. Hongkong real estate market began to appear obvious adjustment in the fourth quarter last year, the past 4 months, the Central Plains index has dropped by 10%, housing prices fell more than 20% cases occur from time to time. Affected by this, in November last year and January this year, there have been two land pat, which is rarely seen in history. There are signs that the irrational exuberance of Hongkong’s real estate market for many years has ended, and almost all financial institutions predict that Hongkong’s housing prices will have a greater decline in 2016. Historically, there have been many ups and downs in the real estate market in Hongkong, and the recent boom occurred after the financial crisis. Hongkong’s economy generally follows the mainland of China, but because of the implementation of the linked exchange rate system and the absence of an independent monetary policy, money and credit can only follow the United states. Under the drive of Chinese in mainland, Hongkong economy to regain momentum after a short-term pullback, this situation should be controlled by tightening monetary inflation and asset bubbles, but long-term zero interest rates instead of passive prices will gradually rise to add fuel to the flames, the peak in 1997, and from 2014 began to accelerate the rise, bubble alarming. High housing prices lead to class solidification, social contradictions intensify, and residents’ happiness decreases. Prices soaring house prices fell the same social pain, not make people happy. Soaring prices, speculative activity, wealth seems to drop from the clouds after the bubble burst, the financial institutions of bad debts rise, those in the high house home needs to create a life of wealth transfer to real estate developers and investors have been successfully harvested, 2003 Hongkong prices fell by 70% compared to 1997, nearly 14 of real estate mortgage in negative equity. Indulge in real estate economic harm endless, this is the Hongkong property market ups and downs to our inspiration. Hongkong property market also provides an excellent sample of investment behavior psychology. In the property market bubble, the stock market bubble of the carnival period, people can easily find the seemingly strong "Fundamentals" to support the expansion of the price, for example, more people and less land, scarcity, good prospects for the development of the city, and first-tier cities exceptions, and the prices of the share price optimistic race each other mutual authentication, asset prices. And the income of residents, business performance and other factors to what degree of decoupling is often ignored by others too. Taking Hongkong as an example, the contradiction between people and internationalization is the best reason for the bulls, but so few still prices diving, indicating that monetary stimuli of the bubble will appear because of monetary factors are. For ordinary investors, to accept speculative experts and lucky children always only a handful of reality, constantly looking for a variety of "Fundamentals" theory

香港楼市非理性繁荣终结的启示 新浪财经客户端:最赚钱的投资者都在用 港股level2行情 翻看机构底牌   新年伊始,一则香港土地拍卖价格大跌70%的消息引起内地媒体的高度关注。这幅位于大埔地区的居民住宅用地拍卖成交价折合人民币不足1.7万元 平方米,远低于北京、上海类似地段的地价,甚至比南京最近一幅土地成交价低一半以上。   熟悉香港地理的人知道,大埔在香港算不上远郊,周边配套也相当成熟。香港房地产市场去年四季度就开始出现明显调整,近4个月来,中原指数已下跌了10%,房价下跌超过20%的个案不时出现。受此影响,去年11月和今年1月已经出现过两次土地流拍,这在历史上实不多见。种种迹象显示,香港房地产市场持续多年的非理性繁荣已经终结,几乎所有的金融机构都预测2016年香港房价将会有更大的跌幅。   历史上,香港房地产市场出现过多次大起大落,最近一轮繁荣发生在金融危机之后。香港经济大体上跟着中国内地走,但由于实行联系汇率制,没有独立的货币政策,货币信贷只能跟着美国走。在中国内地带动下,香港经济短期回落后重获动力,这种情况本来要通过紧缩货币来控制通胀和资产泡沫,但被动的长期零利率反而火上浇油,房价不但逐步上涨到1997年高峰期水平,而且从2014年开始加速上涨,泡沫惊人。高房价导致阶层固化,社会矛盾激化,居民幸福感降低。房价飙涨让社会痛苦,房价下跌同样让人不开心。房价飙涨时,投机活跃,财富仿佛从天而降,泡沫破裂后金融机构坏账上升,那些在高位买房的自住需求者大半生创造的财富转移给了地产商和已成功收割的投资者,2003年香港房价较1997年下跌了70%,近1 4按揭楼盘处于负资产状态。沉迷房地产经济危害无穷,这是香港楼市大起大落给我们的启示之一。   香港楼市还提供了投资行为心理学的一个极佳样本。在楼市泡沫、股市泡沫的狂欢期,人们总能轻易找到貌似坚强的“基本面”来支持不断膨胀的价格,例如,人多地少、稀缺性、良好的发展前景、城市化、一线城市例外等等,乐观自信与房价股价你追我赶,相互验证,资产价格与居民收入、企业业绩等因素脱钩到了何种离谱程度则往往被人无视。以香港为例,人地矛盾和国际化就是看多者最好的理由,但如此人多地少照样楼价跳水,说明货币因素刺激下的泡沫最终会因货币因素而显现出本来面目。对于普通投资者来说,要接受投机高手和幸运儿永远只占少数的现实,不断寻找各种“基本面因素”来为失控的价格寻找心理支撑是非常危险的。2015年的股市已证明了这一点,内地楼市也许有一天还会再次验证这一点。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: