The industrial Futures: inventory accumulation before plastic bargain clients view the latest market point of view the current supply of LLDPE is still in a relatively healthy state, the stock is on a lower middle level. In October after the device restart will really bring some incremental supply, but because October is the traditional peak season demand, so the inventory accumulation remains to be seen whether it can effectively, then this premise is expected to decline in the prices of plastic will be limited, after the full price adjustment are still on the action. Trading strategy: L1701 admission near 8500, target 9000. Arbitrage strategy: multi L1701 null L1705 is set in 350 admission, target 800. Plastic strategy report 1, plastics market trend review and summary of LLDPE since 2016, the overall trend is strong, so far this year rose two wave obviously, time for the December 2015 to the end of March 2016 and May 2016 to July 2016. Review the main driving up from two aspects: the first is the 1 commodity market as a whole at the end of 2015 to stabilize rebound for plastic rise has brought good atmosphere; at the beginning of 2016, the market generally expected that the domestic policy turned loose, periodic replenishment replenishment with the superposition of speculative commodities significantly improved overall demand. 2 second plastic itself from supply and demand perspective, in 2016 and early 2016 centralized maintenance device in the second half of the G20 summit brings shutdowns and other factors make the domestic supply did not significantly increase; new equipment production delay also makes new supply is lower than expected; while imports due to larger price difference upside down year-on-year drop; the demand side chain is significantly improved, no matter is a plastic film or plastic ring were increased. Under this background, plastic stocks are always low, the price premium after the formation of a strong upward momentum. For the 4 quarter of 2016 the market trend, from the fundamentals of supply and demand of the market is expected in October after the supply and demand will gradually turn loose, the new plant put into operation and maintenance device restart is the main reason of supply pressure; but on the other side, the whole social inventory is still in lower level, and in September and October for the traditional demand the season, so the current plastic price trend is not pessimistic. The overall judgment of L1701 can be more than a single layout bargain, and robust when L1701 premium is relatively large in multi L1701 air L1705 is a strategy. 2, the 4 quarter is expected to supply plastic loose, but whether the accumulation of inventory remains to be falsified in the 4 quarter in terms of supply and demand, the supply chain is the main concern of the current increase. The increase in supply is mainly from the two part of the incremental, respectively, to restart the maintenance device and the new plant put into operation. From the new device production schedule, the 4 quarter of 2 sets of main coal chemical equipment production, respectively, Xinjiang Shenhua and co-founder of transit. According to the latest news from the current point of view, Xinjiang Shenhua will run in mid September, the actual product is expected to be the fastest in October will enter the market, and because of the LDPE device, so that there is no direct effect on the supply of LLDPE; and co-founder of transit is expected in 9.
01The industrial Futures inventory accumulation before plastic bargain|The industrial Futures inventory accumulation before plastic bargain8
